Risk and crisis are pervasive elements of the human experience. No matter how sophisticated our defense mechanisms are, we will inevitably face precarious situations if we do not take timely and appropriate actions in the early stage before their manifestations. This is also true in our personal lives, where our perceptions and awareness can significantly influence the trajectory of our lives, especially during critical moments.
The silent workings of the universe are enigmatic, often providing subtle signs and indicators that may be easily overlooked. However, the occurrence of risks and crises is not sudden but rather a result of our failure to take them seriously. Therefore, it is crucial to recognize that we must act proactively before a crisis emerges and strikes us unexpectedly.
As individuals, we are fortuitously positioned in the various corners of the world. But we do not have to relinquish control over our destinations in life. On the contrary, every society is organized based on fundamental human relations, and by being observant, we can understand our place in the social and political order of the environment in which we live.
Similar to the various forms of life on earth, not all social and political orders are the same, and one particular type may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, it is wise to be mindful of the nuances of our specific environment and the unique challenges and opportunities it presents. Doing so allows us to navigate the social and political landscape more effectively and make informed decisions to help us fulfill our destinies.
Taoism emphasizes the idea of change in how we perceive the nature of the world. As Tao Te Ching states, “Reversion is the action of Tao, gentleness is the function of Tao.” One implication from this statement is that we should approach the world with humility, adaptability, and flexibility, knowing that change is essential to life. Therefore, the seemingly opposite phenomena of the world, such as fortune and mishap, growth and decay, and order and chaos, are simply two sides of the same coin. And since everything is in continuous flux, we must adapt to the shifting social and political climates.
Taoist sages would advise us to pay close attention to the early signs and small indicators of potential problems. By doing so, we can address them before they become more significant and irreversible risks and dangers. This requires a heightened sense of awareness and intuition and the ability to respond with tact and decisiveness.
If we ponder the idea of crisis management, we can see why proactive actions are usually underestimated. Regardless of how experienced we are, we still can fail to act until problems have reached a critical stage. In other words, humans are inclined to misjudge the direction of the general trend, which is essentially how the objective world operates.
In the field of governance, we all know effective policymaking requires a proactive approach, designing and implementing sound policies from the outset and adapting them as circumstances change. As a result, policymakers can prevent potential crises from escalating into irreversible outcomes, sparing the public from unnecessary harm and suffering. But still, we can not overlook the human factor, which can be destructive when the institutional arrangements managed by humans become susceptible to decay.
Many people delegate responsibilities to the established order at an individual level, often without critically examining specific situations and how they relate to those circumstances. This can lead to a tendency to ignore potential dangers or to overlook signs of systemic problems. In addition, this kind of behavior may be driven by a survivorship bias, which can prevent individuals from recognizing the full range of risks and challenges they face.
A failure to capture changes and crises lies in people placing their trust in institutions that are seen as reputable and authoritative. This is generally a positive sign that reveals the healthy condition of the body politic. It creates a sense of confidence among the public that those managing human affairs can deliver fair and desirable outcomes. However, this trust can also be misplaced, especially when institutions become dysfunctional and incapable of responding to systemic changes.
One version of conventional wisdom suggests that humans are inherently good or benign and that external circumstances lead some people astray. While it is undoubtedly true that environmental factors can influence behavior, this view can sometimes obscure the complex interplay between individual psychology and social structures. In reality, people are capable of both kindness and cruelty, and many internal and external factors influence how they behave.
This line of reasoning fails to recognize the delicate balance between good and evil in the world. Instead, the contrast between these two opposing forces creates a sense of tension and urgency that always accompanies individuals navigating life’s complexities. This idea is central to the Taoist concept of relative opposites, which emphasizes the importance of lucidity and seeing things as they are.
To grasp the relative opposites of the world, it is crucial to cultivate the ability to see the Subtle Light, which essentially refers to the underlying patterns and rhythms that govern the universe. This skill is critical for individuals to navigate their personal life paths and those managing businesses or ruling countries. By being aware of these subtle patterns, people can make more informed decisions and take responsibility for their actions from the very beginning, as illustrated in Tao Te Ching,
That which lies still is easy to hold;
That which is not yet manifest is easy to forestall;
That which is brittle (like ice) easily melts;
That which is minute easily scatters.
Deal with a thing before it is there;
Check disorder before it is rife.
A tree with a full span’s girth begins from a tiny sprout;
A nine-stories terrace begins with a clod of earth.
A journey of a thousand miles begins at one’s feet1.
It is important to note that seeing the Subtle Light does not equate to passively accepting life's inevitable challenges. Instead, it can be a source of strength and resilience in adversity. By recognizing the interconnected nature of the world and the balance between opposing forces such as chaos and stability, disruption and order, and safety and danger, we can approach challenging situations with greater insight and understanding.
Even when faced with seemingly insurmountable obstacles, the experience of seeing the Subtle Light can guide us toward taking positive actions and maintaining a strong spirit. This can help us rise above temporary defeats and achieve a more positive outcome.
Sun Tzu, the author of The Art of War, understood the invisible while palpable laws underlying the silent transformations of things or the idea of “shi” (勢), translated as tide, trend, or circumstances. “Shi” is critical for grand strategy analysis, which not just emphasizes the static differences in overall capacities and, more importantly, considers any possible changes that could shift the ongoing dynamics and accordingly guides actions to adapt to changing circumstances. Sun Tzu explained the different stages of using strategies in warfare,
…the highest form of generalship is to balk or counter-attack the enemy’s plans; the next best is to prevent the junction of the enemy’s separate forces; the next in order is to attack the enemy’s army in the field when he is at full strength; and the worst policy of all is to besiege walled cities2.
The key is not simply to act a few steps ahead of the changing tide but to adjust our positioning with minimal effort and sacrifice so that we can afford to retreat, preserve ourselves, and triumph eventually.
When we grasp the Subtle Light, seeing through the interconnectedness of situations and their transformations, we essentially control the keys to turn disadvantages into forte, preserve stability from danger, and resolve a crisis before it emerges.
Lin Yutang, “Chapter 64: Beginning and End,” in The Wisdom of Laotse.
Sun Tzu, “Chapter III. ATTACK BY STRATAGEM,” The Project Gutenberg, 2021, https://www.gutenberg.org/files/132/132-h/132-h.htm#chap11.
Wow! I've seen the phrase "The journey of a thousand miles..." being used so idiomatically all my life. I never knew its source.